As we “go to press” with this newsletter, the midterm elections haven’t been held, and no one knows for sure what the outcome will be. The pundits put the chance of the Republicans keeping the Senate at about 71% and the chance of the Democrats taking the House at a slightly lower percentage, but still likely. Of course, there are many recent examples where these kinds of predictions not only missed the mark, but missed spectacularly.
“…Few can claim the ability to reliably predict elections – look no further than the Brexit vote and the 2016 US presidential election…,” Mike Ryan, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management pointed out. In fact, some pundits projected a 5% to 20% decline in U.S. markets if Trump was elected. As we know, predictions grabbed headlines, but those declines didn’t materialize.